I think the market environment and mindset is so set toward "more powerful and total realism" that it makes it seem too risky for a "new box." But it has been the market itself that has pushed this perspective into the mind of the gamer. That is how it has sold us a new console every 5 years, or whatever. A new entry would think they would have to sink too much into something competitive that would have a high probability of tanking. Everyone depends on 3rd party for their system's success. And that is where some of the problem lies. It is the "same same" game.
The days of the big home consoles might be at an end. Not saying that there might not be another Playstation or Xbox, but it seems to be headed toward more mediocrity. Nintendo's last generation console, which was a more powerful Wii, crashed and burned, big time. It was one of their worse selling consoles. Compared to the "Wii" 100 milion to the "Wii U" 10 million units, is dismal to say the least. The Virtual Boy positions itself right under the Wii U. Somehow it did not make it into the gamer's "gota have" mentality. For a company that reawakened the gaming industry, I question if they have lost their way for a moment. They have been the shakers in innovation that has pushed the gaming culture for so long. I am thinking that this failure seemed to cause the company to do some changes in direction which is yet to be seen as being wise. They are abandoning the traditional concept of the home console and portable in exchange for a tablet. The jury is still out on this one.
A new entry would need to have something very fresh and would tap into the heart of the gamer. It would need to be all about the games and forget about power being the push "all up in my face" sort-of thing. I don't think an outsider would take a chance. It would need to be a third party motivated by some fresh concepts and the feeling they could impact the industry in a way that the leaders are failing. They would need a partnership with someone willing to go in with them in a joint venture. Something similar to what NEC and Hudson soft had, PC Engine. It is not impossible for something like this to happen and shake the gaming culture. The question would be, who would suffer, Microsoft's Xbox or Sony's Playstation. I think Nintendo's present direction probably creates a vacuum for a new entry so it might not effect those two giants. At the same time, those two giants need to rethink their strategy. Sony needs to consider whether they are serious about the Virtual Glasses enough to point the direction of their next console. This would leave Microsoft to continue in the tradition console gaming offerings. There needs to be a shake up like this to revitalize and bring some new excitement into the gaming world. Nintendo with the tablet, Sony with VR, and Microsoft traditional, I think the gaming culture is mature and big enough for that. Sorry to say, Sony is already starting to get shaky with their VR support. I get this from someone I know that has connections in the industry. I don't know how reliable that info is. He used to do game testing for Sony.
I personally don't like Nintendo's direction. I don't want to lose my 3DS. I love the concept and the clamshell design. The high price of these more powerful consoles have forced me out of the market of even considering the next generation. I know price effects the industry. There needs to be some technological breakthroughs for the gaming world to lower costs. There needs to be change in a lot of areas.
Good question you have here. I just wish there were more around to discuss this idea. It has got me to thinking.